North Korea Publishes Letter But No Appearance Yet

After weeks without an appearance, North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un has materialized—on paper at least.

In a sign that North Korea is feeling the pressure to provide some proof of life, North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) published a letter dated April 27 from Kim Jong Un to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa sending greetings for South Africa’s Freedom Day.

Although such letters are a common diplomatic nicety, it would be somewhat unusual for Kim to send such a letter to South Africa’s leader: For the past 16 years, North Korea’s No. 2, the president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly—currently Choe Ryong Hae—has traditionally sent greetings for South Africa’s Freedom Day.

South Korea has repeatedly held firm that Kim is in no danger. Minister for Unification Kim Yeon Chul said on Monday that South Korea has “enough intelligence to confidently say that there are no unusual developments” in North Korea.

During Monday’s White House briefing, U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his good wishes to Kim, adding that he may be more aware of Kim’s status than he let on, “I hope he’s fine. I do know how he’s doing relatively speaking. We will see—you’ll probably be hearing in the not too distant future,” Trump said.

What’s coming next? In Foreign Policy, Duyeon Kim and Leif-Eric Easley explore the different scenarios, from a full return to normal to a leadership vacuum. Either way, the authors say this episode “can serve as a wake-up call to the U.S.-South Korea alliance on the need for close and advance coordination on scenarios surrounding the health of the North Korean leader.”

It’s also a reality check on the frailty of North Korea’s political system, as Oriana Skylar Mastro points out in FP, “Since World War II, no family dictatorship has ever managed to pass power for a third time.”

If things fall apart in the north, defectors could play a key role in the Korean Peninsula’s future. Melissa Chan profiles the former North Korean diplomat Thae Yong-ho, who defected to South Korea after serving Pyongyang for decades and was recently elected to the legislature in Seoul. “If North Korea ever reconciles with its neighbor—whether through collapse or diplomacy—it may be trailblazers like Thae who play a key role in any rapprochement,” she writes.